Right, currently I'm in Turkey and Turks like to brag about the civilizations who lived here and did the early research on maths, physics and medical sciences.
However, ASML is a EU company and at this very moment Trump is threatening EU and he said that EU is just as bad as China and will punish the Europeans. What if the relations between US and EU sour to the point that US is cut off from EUV machines and the Europeans cut a deal with Russia and China instead and get the energy and technology in EU? Anti-American forces are on rise in Europe.
Even if US manages to get everything it needs, it will be ~300M people and if Trump manages to alienate enough partners that will be total market size for the fabs and EUV tech as it wouldn't be the only one in town doing it. In these extremely large scale investment stuff, you need to be serving billions of people to make economical sense. Fabs in US with no access to the entire globe is a worse position than Fabs in China with no access to the entire globe simply by the 5x the population difference and with US adopting protectionist stance it doesn't seem like it would be China who doesn't have access to the global markets.
See, the new president-elect doesn't like Nato and already considered leaving it in his previous turn. US also demonstrated reluctance to fulfill its commitment. The established world order is a bust, ships are going around Africa because NATO is unable to secure passage through the Suez canal.
> What if the relations between US and EU sour to the point that US is cut off from EUV machines and the Europeans cut a deal with Russia and China instead
That will not happen. I am an American, I greatly dislike Trump, but fundamentally you have to understand that if Taiwan is a stable enough country to sell EUV machines to, America's money is good enough as well. There is just no chance the EU plays this card, even with NATO threatened as a whole - selling EUV to Russia and China would be actual industry suicide with no tangible benefits besides the scorched-earth policy.
However, ASML is a EU company and at this very moment Trump is threatening EU and he said that EU is just as bad as China and will punish the Europeans. What if the relations between US and EU sour to the point that US is cut off from EUV machines and the Europeans cut a deal with Russia and China instead and get the energy and technology in EU? Anti-American forces are on rise in Europe.
Even if US manages to get everything it needs, it will be ~300M people and if Trump manages to alienate enough partners that will be total market size for the fabs and EUV tech as it wouldn't be the only one in town doing it. In these extremely large scale investment stuff, you need to be serving billions of people to make economical sense. Fabs in US with no access to the entire globe is a worse position than Fabs in China with no access to the entire globe simply by the 5x the population difference and with US adopting protectionist stance it doesn't seem like it would be China who doesn't have access to the global markets.