If Ukraine falls then the Baltics will be next - I can see Poland, France and the UK attempting to help but I suspect this would ultimately fail leading to the breakup of NATO. EU either breaks up or becomes much stronger...
Moldova first. The Kremlin have already refused to recognise the new pro-EU leader, and they've been making noises about Transnistria for a while (a similar situation to Crimea and East Ukraine).
There's a huge difference between invading a NATO member and invading a non-NATO member. And ultimately I don't think Russia has the capability to continue invading more countries with or without the US' opposition, this war has been a nonstop embarrassment for them.
If Poland France and the UK are more invested in opposing Russia then one would think that the Ukraine wouldn't be entirely reliant on the US to support it. This is the fundamental problem with the proxy war in the Ukraine, the people pushing for it talk about it as if the fate of the European continent rests on the fulcrum of the Ukraine and yet the other European countries hardly seem to care.
What do you mean? Europe has contributed twice as much to Ukraine compared to USA. Yeah, in plain military spending USA has given more, but a war isn’t won with just guns. This has been a strategy that has made sense given USAs military industrial complex, and EUs geographical proximity to Ukraine.
If USA pulls out it’s likely that EU will shift some of its aid over to military. This is already happening: European countries have started setting up arms production within Ukraine which gives Ukraine more guns per dollar spent than what donations of western built weapons does. So don’t think the dollar amount donated tells you everything about the amount of military support given.
It does insofar as the US can "decide" to betray all of its allies by ignoring its obligations under a military alliance. We've already publicly proclaimed to the entire world that the American military will come to the aid of any NATO member which is invaded. We've never had such an agreement with the Ukraine and thus owe no obligations towards them.
They aren't even going to be embarrassed - Ukraine will get a peace deal forced on it and Russia will declare a glorious victory and that will become the history that everyone remembers.
It'll take multiple years for Russia to recover and have the means to target the Baltics, by then Putin will likely kick the bucket, as he's getting up there in years and who knows what the succession would look like.
